Paris-headquartered insurer Allianz Trade said it has increased to 3.2% its projections for Croatia’s real economic growth in 2026, from 2.7% it projected in February last year.
“Looking ahead, real GDP is expected to continue growing at relatively strong rates,” Allianz Trade said in the 2026 edition of the Country Risk Atlas published in cooperation with Austria’s trade credit insurer Acredia published this week.
According to the publication, Croatia’s economy is expected to grow by a real 2.6% next year.
Following its peak of 3.8% in 2024, the country’s economic growth is projected to slow down to but remain above its long-term average, supported by a resilient labour market, declining financing costs and continued inflows of European Union funds, according to the publication.
Private consumption should remain a key growth driver despite some moderation, while public investment is expected to regain momentum as EU-funded projects accelerate, it added.
Croatia’s limited exposure to the US market reduces vulnerability to higher US tariffs, suggesting that external demand should remain broadly supportive, Allianz Trade said. However, elevated geopolitical uncertainty could encourage precautionary savings and delay private investment, while net exports are likely to remain a modest drag on growth, it added.
“Croatia still benefits from solid economic foundations, strong demand and strong integration to the European value chains,” Michael Kolb, member of the executive board of the Acredia Group, said in a press release presenting the publication. He believes that the current slowdown of Croatia’s economic growth should be seen primarily as normalization. “Overall, the business environment remains stable, although separate risks become more obvious,” he added.
The 2006 publication did not provide projection for Croatia’s economic growth in 2025. Last year, it projected a 2.9% real GDP growth for the Adriatic country in 2025.
